August 04, 2011 Edition 24
Bitterlemons International
It may sound strange to some, but theUnited StatesandIranhave been “working together” ever since the tragic events of September 11, 2001 and the subsequentUSinvasions ofAfghanistanandIraq. This “cooperation”, albeit behind the scenes, can be seen clearly inIraq. The two countries are officially and actually enemies and no doubt monitor each other’s activities and work against each other, especially in theMiddle East. But the fact remains that they have been cooperating inIraq, and not always clandestinely–they entered into direct negotiations inBaghdadin 2008, with the Iraqis as intermediaries.
Iranstands to be the biggest beneficiary of the American invasions of Afghanistanand Iraqin 2001 and 2003, respectively. Americadid Iranthe favor of a lifetime by removing the two bitterest enemies of the Islamic Republic–Saddam Hussein to the west and the Taliban to the east–making it a lot safer for the ayatollahs to rule and enhancing their grip on power, notwithstanding the challenges they face at home. This American action also contributed to the stability of Iranand the strengthening of its economy, assisted by oil prices that have skyrocketed from around $30 per barrel in 2001 to almost $100 today. This has enabled Iranto spend on its nuclear project, which is believed to be nearing completion despite international objections.
The cooperation between the US and Iran was most visible in Iraq before, during and after the invasion of 2003. Some Iraqi opposition leaders acted as intermediaries, and many experts believe that the US would not have invaded Iraq had it not been for the tacit approval of Tehran. In Iraq, the US and Iran rarely clashed (although they are apprehensive of each other’s intentions), but both understood that in any clash each would lose badly.
Instead, they have played it safe; the US made friends with all the Iraqi opposition factions that had been propped up, nurtured, and funded by Iran for a quarter of a century. Iran, too, made friends with America’s allies in Iraq, such as Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmed Chalabi, believed to be the architect of the invasion of Iraq.
But dynamics in Iraq changed dramatically in Iran’s favor after the invasion. New indigenous and independent political forces appeared on the Iraqi scene. Among these was the Sadrist trend led by young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The American administration in Iraq, acting on the advice of Iraqi allies, ignored this trend and tried to marginalize it. The Americans did not include the Sadrist trend in the Governing Council, cracked down on its activists, and closed its newspapers and media outlets. This US targeting of the movement served to rally its supporters Iraq-wide. The trend formed a militia called the Mahdi Army, which took up arms against the Americans and the newly-formed Iraqi government. Al-Sadr carried enormous weight among his followers, who were ready to obey his orders in any direction.
While the US entered into confrontation with the Sadrist trend, Iran reached out to the movement. In 2006, al-Sadr left Iraq and settled in Qom to “complete his religious studies”. When his movement split, Iran is believed to have embraced the new radical offshoot (the Gangs of the Righteous), which is now a secret organization, but still powerful.
Overall, Iran has established relationships with most Iraqi political parties who now listen to it and take its views on board. On the other hand, Iraqi parties and factions have observed that the Americans do not always support their allies, and when they do, they are not as strong and committed as the Iranians. Gradually, most Iraqi factions have begun to believe that the Iranians, not the Americans, are pulling the strings in Iraq. Therefore, it’s essential to cooperate with them, rather than with the Americans who have proven themselves to be short-sighted, isolated from political realities, and hastening to leave.
Nevertheless, both the Americans and Iranians are still working hard to enhance their presence in Iraq. After last year’s elections, neither the US nor Iran was able to impose its candidate for prime minister, so they settled for Nouri al-Maliki, who is a friend of both, and a coalition government with the participation of nearly every party.
The Americans are trying to supply the Iraqi military with American weapons, which means Iraq will be tied to American military aid and technical assistance indefinitely. They are also trying to establish economic and cultural links with the country. There are now thousands of Iraqi students, judges, academics, journalists, politicians and other professionals who are either studying, visiting, working or have completely moved to live in the US. Thousands of ordinary Iraqis also visit the US every year, some on various programs paid for by American institutions. These links will certainly produce results, but only in the long run.
As things stand, however, the Iranians are cementing their relationships with the Iraqi state and political parties. Many Iranian goods are flooding Iraqi markets. Iran is also supplying Iraq with electricity and oil products. Millions of Iranian pilgrims pour into Iraq every year, providing the country with alternative sources of income to oil. Iran has also become a destination for millions of Iraqi tourists, pilgrims, or those seeking medical treatment. There are still about a million Iraqis in Iran. In sum, the Iranians are winning in Iraq while the Americans are retreating.
But this is not written in stone. It can still change if the burgeoning secular movement in Iraq organizes itself better. Many Iraqis, both Sunni and Shiite, are wary of Iranian influence and do not wish to see their country tied to Iran. They would rather see close relations with the West and the Arab world. But these tendencies are too weak to counter the powerful, and growing, Iranian influence in the country.-Published 4/8/2011 © bitterlemons-international.org
Hamid Alkifaey is a writer and journalist. He was the first government spokesman of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq and founder-leader of the Movement for Democratic Society. Currently he is researching democratization at the University of Exeter in the UK.
http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/inside.php?id=1422
