October 28, 2010 Edition 20
Bitterlemons International
Iraqhas broken the world record for the time required to form a government, surpassing theNetherlandsthat in 1977 took 208 days. The March 7 elections were inconclusive, producing a hung parliament with four major blocs, the largest of which is Iraqia of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. Article 76 of the Iraqi constitution states that the bloc with the most seats forms the government. This means that Allawi should have been asked to form the government.
However the two Shiite lists, State of Law led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (89 seats) and National Alliance led by young cleric Ammar al-Hakim (70 seats), went to the federal court and got a ruling allowing them to join together in a post-election bloc holding the most seats. Iraqia challenged the ruling as “politically motivated”, saying it contravenes past parliamentary precedents, and that the existing federal court has no such jurisdiction. This ruling and the two camps’ insistence on their right to form the government produced the current impasse.
The Arab world has been highly critical of regime change in Iraq, and opposed the American invasion of the country. It has yet to come to terms with the fact that an Arab regime has been toppled by a foreign power and its opponents installed in power. Another problem is that the democratic regime established in post-invasion Iraq is alien to the region, and many Arab states are wary of its long-term implications in a conflict-prone region. Some regional powers tried, through fair means and foul, to influence events in Iraq. The most influential regional powers in Iraq are believed to be Iran and Syria. Both countries have hosted the opposition to Saddam Hussein’s regime, and that opposition is now in government.
Many believe the current political impasse in Iraq is due to a regional power struggle over control of the country. Iran wishes to see a Shiite Islamic government in Baghdad that is in line with its political thinking. Under the current circumstances, such a government can only be led by incumbent Prime Minister Maliki, who wields more power within Shiite circles than any other Islamic leader. While this option might also be acceptable to Iran’s main regional ally, Syria, it is anathema to the Arab order in general, which favors an Arab-leaning secular government led by Allawi.
The new post-election Shiite bloc is still deeply divided on who should lead the alliance and then the government. The largest component of the alliance, State of Law, has a tested strong leader in Prime Minister Maliki. The other components, mainly the Sadrist Trend led by firebrand young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (ISCI), led by Ammar al-Hakim, have opposed Maliki’s candidacy. They both hold grievances against him. The Sadrists say he killed and imprisoned many of their followers, while Hakim says that Maliki’s rule over the last four years has been dictatorial, and that he never consulted with those allies who installed him in power. Both parties wanted a different candidate.
However, the Sadrists have finally agreed to support Maliki, yielding to pressure believed to be from Iran, where their leader now pursues his theological studies. Syria also appears to have changed its position on this matter and now appears to support a second term for Maliki. But Hakim, who is adamant in his opposition to Maliki, went so far as to form an alliance with Allawi, which vehemently opposes the renewal of Maliki’s term.
Events have moved fast in the last three weeks, and even Iraqia appears to be shifting its position away from its previous insistence on what it calls its “constitutional right” to form the government. It seems that, after giving up hope of forming the government, Iraqia now contemplates supporting ISCI’s candidate, Vice President Adil Abdul Mahdi. Amid all this political manoeuvring, the Kurdistan Alliance has emerged as kingmaker. Negotiations have intensified over the last two weeks between the two rival Arab camps, led by Allawi and Maliki, and the Kurdish Alliance, led by Masoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government. The Kurds have submitted a list of 19 demands to be met by their prospective partners. Maliki has accepted them all and given this in writing, according to news reports. He has even obtained the approval of Muqtada Sadr. Iraqia is also looking at these demands favourably since accepting them is the only way to get Kurdish backing. Despite all their good relations with Allawi, and even if he accepts all their 19-point paper, the Kurds do not seem to be ready to end their traditional and historic alliance with the Shiite Islamists. This tendency may lead them to favor a pact with Maliki.
The Arab world has been holding its breath. Many Arab countries were waiting, most of them passively, for the outcome of this power struggle between Iraqi factions. Although numerous Arab countries have re-established relations with Iraq and seem to be willing to deal with whoever is in power there, many others are still of two minds. Iraq has been an important player in Arab political and economic affairs and many countries depend on Iraqi oil, or trade for their economic well-being. Arab states, mostly Sunni, won’t be very comfortable with an Islamic Shiite government in Baghdad, which is likely to be led by Maliki, who has been critical of the policies of many Arab states toward his country. Iran-weary Arabs won’t trust or cooperate with such a government, even though they may deal with it. Sunni-Shiite relations have been marred with mistrust and doubt over the years. It’s a centuries-old religious-political schism that can only be healed if religion is kept out of politics, a somewhat far-fetched prospect given current discord and rivalries. -Published 28/10/2010 © bitterlemons-international.org
Hamid Alkifaey is a writer and journalist. He was the first government spokesman of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq and founder-leader of the Movement for Democratic Society.
