On the other hand, the performance of Iraqi security forces is much better now. Their intelligence capabilities have also improved. They are able to conduct large-scale counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations. They have managed to gain public trust–and this is important for the country’s morale. Thus, the US withdrawal of its forces won’t make a lot of difference in this regard. They have hardly been in action in the last three years, simply because they have not been needed. 

Iraq remains under Chapter 7 of the United Nations, which keeps it under constant threat of interference in its affairs unless the US stands with it. It has problems with some of its neighbors that have not been very supportive. Many Iraqis, the government included, fear foreign influence, especially that of Iran, which is believed to be increasing. Iraq scores 175 out of 182 countries in Transparency International’s corruption index. Although it is oil-rich, Iraq’s oil revenue is swallowed up by the salaries of state employees and corruption, with little left for investment.

The question remains: are the Americans really leaving Iraq? Or they are leaving from the door to come back in through the window? The US embassy in Baghdad is twice the size of the White House, covering an area of 104 acres. In addition to the mammoth embassy, there are ten more facilities across the country, including three US diplomatic missions in Erbil, Kirkuk and Basra. Between 15,000-16,000 US personnel will be remaining in Iraq, at least 10,000 of whom have security duties. Americans are also involved in all sectors of the Iraqi economy, running programs worth hundreds of millions of dollars. 

The latest state visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to Washington confirmed deep US involvement in Iraq. President Barack Obama assured his guest that Iraq will not be abandoned–the US will continue to support it on all fronts. Al-Maliki needs this assurance to cement his power base, just in case his opponents feel he is weakened by the US military withdrawal. He will need US political muscle to get Iraq out of UN Chapter 7 restrictions. He is also wary of what might happen to Iraq after the prospective fall of the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria. He distrusts Assad’s likely successor, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni religious party that might (in league with hostile Arab states) undermine the power of Islamic Shiite parties in Iraq. But if al-Maliki maintains close relations with the US, this danger can be removed since the US will use its influence to reduce any possible threats. The Iraqi leader has proven to be a shrewd politician who is not going to compromise his relations with the US under any circumstances. The Americans have helped him stay in power over the past six years and they will continue to support him as long as he maintains stability in Iraq and keeps Iranian influence at a minimum. He is certainly not an Iranian stooge as his opponents try to portray him, but he knows he also needs to keep Iran on board if he is to succeed.

Obama, too, needs al-Maliki’s support, both at home and abroad. At home, the US president is being criticized that American sacrifices in Iraq have been in vain. His ambivalence caused the US to lose to Iran, which made it clear it will fill the vacuum left by the US. In the Arab world, US policy and influence are challenged by its perceived failure in Iraq. Arabs believe Iran has actually defeated the US. So Obama needs al-Maliki to move Iraq away from Iranian influence and crack down on Tehran’s allies in the country. Al-Qaeda has been defeated and Iraqi Sunnis helped greatly in achieving this breakthrough. Although many of them feel marginalized, they are no longer seeking to undermine the current regime, and stability can be achieved if they are treated as equal partners and trusted with sensitive posts in government. Al-Maliki is expected to listen to advice from his US friends in this regard.

Withdrawing its forces from Iraq won’t reduce Washington’s ability to influence events in the country. On the contrary, America will be freed of the burden of “occupier” it has carried for nine years. It can now turn to providing real support for Iraq in the areas where it is needed most, as well as help protect its fledgling democracy.-Published 15/12/2011 © bitterlemons-international.org